Why I Think AR Glasses Are the Inevitable Future of the Smartphone

Ben: I, along with major tech giants like Meta, Apple, and Google, envision AR glasses as the natural progression from smartphones in the long term. The appeal lies in the concept of performing all smartphone functions on a dynamic screen that can adjust in size and position as needed. Imagine having a virtual screen that can act as a small window for messages while on the move, and transform into a large cinema screen at home.

If we can develop a device with this capability (and there are indications that we can), it would not only replace smartphones but also traditional TVs. Consider the multitude of screens in our lives beyond phones and TVs—laptop screens, desktop monitors, smartwatches—all of these could be substituted with virtual screens from a single wearable device. While a 65″ 4K TV is impractical to carry, glasses replicating that display can be taken anywhere.

The quality of virtual screens produced by devices like Apple Vision Pro demonstrates the feasibility of this vision. Vision Pro’s virtual TV window surpasses the quality of most physical TVs, offering a superior 3D experience compared to traditional 3D technologies. However, the challenge for the tech industry lies in shrinking the features and performance of devices like Vision Pro into compact glasses like Orion, necessitating significant breakthroughs.

This vision is a long-term goal, at least a decade away. While Orion represents progress towards this goal, it currently falls short of being a smartphone replacement. Nevertheless, the trajectory is clear.

Therefore, I believe that people will adopt AR glasses once they offer greater value than smartphones, a transition that may take another decade.

Ben: While challenges remain in perfecting typing in XR, history shows that innovative solutions can overcome such hurdles. Research efforts, such as Meta’s EMG input device, offer promising avenues for enhancing typing experiences on AR glasses.

Similarly, there is no reason to assume that battery life on AR glasses cannot match that of smartphones. Meta’s approach with Orion, utilizing a wireless ‘compute puck’ for heavy processing tasks, indicates potential for extended battery performance. By offloading intensive tasks to the compute puck, the glasses can operate efficiently with a larger battery capacity than typical smartphones.

Ben: Meta’s strategic decisions are influenced by its reliance on Google and Apple for platform access. Zuckerberg’s pursuit of immersive technologies, starting with the acquisition of Oculus in 2014, stems from a desire to establish Meta as a leader in the next computing platform, independent of Google and Apple’s dominance. This strategic move reflects Zuckerberg’s long-standing efforts to outmaneuver tech giants in the immersive tech space.