According to analysts, Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are facing setbacks against the Army due to strategic errors, internal divisions, and a decrease in resources.
The Army has made significant progress in the nearly two-year conflict, reversing the course of the war that has resulted in the death of thousands and displacement of millions.
Recent advancements by the Army include recapturing the capital of Al-Jazira State, Wad Madani, and making moves towards Khartoum.
In a span of two weeks, the Army broke through RSF blockades at key military bases in Khartoum and seized the Al-Jaili oil refinery, the largest in the country, just north of the capital.
Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies’s Africa programme, noted that the RSF, which initially had an advantage in preparedness, is now showing weaknesses as its supplies dwindle and recruitment efforts falter.
On the other hand, the Army, which was caught off guard at the beginning of the conflict, has had time to regroup, recruit, and arm itself.
Overextended, exposed
The Sudanese Army has expanded its forces by mobilizing volunteers, allied militias, and other security branches, including reinstating the Special Operations Forces, according to a former General in the military.
Analysts suggest that internal rifts within the RSF have further weakened the group’s command structure and organization.
Despite these setbacks, analysts believe that the RSF has adjusted its strategy to target civilian infrastructure in central Sudan while maintaining control over Darfur.
RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo has remained defiant, pledging to drive the Army out of Khartoum.
In recent attacks, the RSF has targeted power plants, a hospital in El-Fasher, and a market in Omdurman.
The RSF’s ultimate goal remains El-Fasher in Darfur, as capturing the city would strengthen its negotiating position and formalize its control over a significant portion of the country.
Published – February 05, 2025 12:13 pm IST
