Myanmar’s military regime acknowledged on Monday it had lost communications with the commanders of a strategically important Army headquarters in the northeast, adding credence to claims from a militia group it had captured the base.
The fall of the Army’s Northeast Command in the city of Lashio would be the biggest in a series of setbacks and a significant blow to Myanmar’s military government this year as an offensive launched by an alliance of powerful militias of ethnic minority groups continues to make broad gains in the country’s civil war.
“The regime’s loss of the Northeast Command is the most humiliating defeat of the war,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project.
“Without Lashio, it will be extremely difficult for the regime to hold onto its final outposts in the theatre.”
Those include the key border crossing with China of Muse, as well as the strategic crossroads at Kyaukme, and it opens the way for attacks on Pyin Oo Lwin and Mandalay City, he said.
The loss also raises questions about whether the ruling military council could be forced to give up attempts to hold contested territory in order to consolidate a defence of the central heartland. It could also contribute to growing discontent with Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the officer who seized power after leading the overthrow of the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021.
“The battle further underlines the utter failure of the Army’s senior leadership, especially Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing,” Michaels said.
“It seems increasingly unlikely that the Army could survive with Min Aung Hlaing at the helm.”
Lashio, about 110 km south of the Chinese border, has been the target of an offensive by the MNDAA, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army since early July.
The MNDAA is a military force of the Kokang minority, who are ethnic Chinese. It is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which last October launched a surprise offensive that succeeded in seizing large tracts of territory along the northern border with China.
China helped broker a cease-fire in January, but that fell apart in June when the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, another member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance made up of Ta’ang ethnic minority members, launched new attacks, followed by the MNDAA. The alliance’s third member, the Arakan Army, had never stopped fighting in its home Rakhine State in western Myanmar.
The groups in the alliance have been fighting for decades for greater autonomy from Myanmar’s central government. They are loosely allied with People’s Defense Forces — pro-democracy resistance groups that have arisen to fight military rule since the army took power.
The MNDAA had initially claimed the capture of the Northeast Command and Lashio on July 25, but it turned out the announcement was premature as the army continued to fight.
The MNDAA said in a statement published on its Facebook page Saturday that the group had finally completely captured the military’s Northeast Command headquarters and defeated the remaining army units in Lashio at 12:20 p.m. that day.
The claims could not be verified independently, with access to the internet and mobile phone services in the Lashio area mostly cut off.
A member of Lashio’s Freedom Youth Volunteers-FYV, reached while he was outside the city, told The Associated Press Monday that other members of his aid group had reported army personnel remained in control of some areas of the Northeast Command headquarters, though most had been taken by the MNDAA.
He spoke on the condition of anonymity out of fear of reprisals from both sides.
There were still reports of gunfire in the city on Sunday, but photos of captured army commanders, as well as multiple videos and photos of captured equipment and soldiers were circulating widely on social media, suggesting the MNDAA had taken the base.
The MNDAA itself released a photo of its troops posing in front of a sign outside the Northeast Command.
“The regime has clearly suffered an enormous loss and no longer has any meaningful control of the city, even if it retains a toehold for now,” Michaels said.
The MNDAA had captured a regional military headquarters in Laukkaing, a key city on the Chinese border, earlier in the offensive, but the Lashio headquarters is more important.
Early Monday, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, the spokesperson of Myanmar’s ruling military council, said in an audio statement on state-run MRTV television that it had lost contact with commanders of the Northeastern Command headquarters Saturday night and had unconfirmed reports some of them have been arrested by the MNDAA.
“We recognize and respect all the officers, soldiers, and policewomen of the Northeast Regional Military Command for protecting the command, Lashio territory, the military and the motherland with all their abilities,” he said without specifically addressing MNDAA’s claim to have captured the facility.
“I would like to say that the government and the military will continue to do what should be done for the country and the people.”
