India’s domestic air traffic sees 14.5pc YoY growth in January 2025, BA

In January 2025, India’s domestic air passenger traffic continued its upward trajectory, with an estimated 150.3 lakh passengers flying, which is 0.7 per cent higher than the previous month and a significant 14.5 per cent increase compared to January 2024. This growth marks a 17.9 per cent rise from pre-Covid levels, with domestic air travel showing resilience as the sector adapts to evolving conditions.

The increase in traffic was supported by a rise in capacity deployment, which grew by 10.8 per cent compared to January 2024, with a total of 97,863 departures in January 2025. Despite a slight sequential dip in departures from December 2024, the average number of passengers per flight reached 154, up from 149 passengers in January 2024. With a passenger load factor (PLF) of approximately 92.1 per cent, the domestic aviation industry continues to experience strong demand.

For the ten months of FY2025 (April 2024–January 2025), domestic air passenger traffic stood at 1,372.1 lakh, representing a 7.5 per cent YoY growth, aligning with expectations for the fiscal year. Additionally, the highest single-day traffic was recorded on January 11, 2025, with 509,264 passengers, surpassing previous traffic records.

Although the outlook for the Indian aviation industry remains stable, it faces several challenges. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices, which remain elevated compared to pre-Covid levels, could exert pressure on airline profitability. The average ATF price in February 2025 saw a 6.8 per cent YoY reduction but was 5.5 per cent higher sequentially from January 2025. For FY2025, the industry is expected to see a moderate growth rate of 7-10 per cent, down from 13 per cent in FY2024, largely due to a high base in the previous fiscal and weather-related disruptions.

While the recovery in earnings is expected to be gradual, ICRA anticipates a net loss of INR 20-30 billion for the Indian aviation sector in FY2025, down from the significant losses reported in the previous years. The sector’s ability to manage costs, including the high ATF prices, and maintain strong PLFs will be crucial to sustaining profitability.