Famed polling guru Nate Silver’s ‘gut says Donald Trump’ will win 2024 presidential election

Election Prediction by Nate Silver

Election expert Nate Silver has made a prediction for the upcoming Nov. 5 election, stating that former President Donald Trump is likely to win. However, he also warns that polling data suggests that the race could still go either way.

According to Silver, who currently gives the Republican nominee a 53.1% chance of winning, the battleground states are all polling very closely, making a 50-50 forecast the most responsible choice. He shared his insights in a New York Times op-ed published recently.

Despite the close race, Silver admits that his gut feeling leans towards Donald Trump, a sentiment shared by many anxious Democrats. He also discussed how past surveys have underestimated Trump’s performance due to a bias towards his supporters.

Silver pointed out that if Trump does win against Vice President Kamala Harris, it could be a sign that Democrats no longer have a consistent edge in party identification, as more people now identify as Republicans.

In the case for Harris, Silver suggested that pollsters might be overly concerned about accurately measuring support for Trump, potentially skewing their surveys against the Democratic nominee.

He also raised concerns about polling errors, such as people misremembering who they voted for in the previous election and the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on survey responses.

Despite current polls showing Harris with a slight lead in the national popular vote, the RealClearPolitics aggregate predicts a Trump victory in all seven swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Having analyzed the past five presidential elections, Silver’s prediction carries weight as the country gears up for another closely contested race.