Close Tory-NDP race expected in Elmwood-Transcona in rematch of September byelection – Winnipeg

For voters in Elmwood-Transcona, it’s going to be a familiar ballot on Election Day.

All three candidates for the major parties — the NDP’s Leila Dance, Conservative Colin Reynolds, and Liberal Ian MacIntyre — are the same ones that ran in the September byelection. The NDP managed to hold onto the seat then, but by a narrow margin over the Tories.

Malcolm Bird, associate professor of political science at the University of Winnipeg, predicts it will be a tight race once again.

“A very important race for both parties — particularly the NDP, they really need to pick up this seat,” says Bird. “As many have observed, they’re very low in the polls, and they need every seat possible.”

Bird says it’s very possible the riding could go blue for just the second time in its history. Since it was created in 2004, it has been an NDP stronghold. But in September, Dance beat Reynolds by less than 1,200 votes, taking 48 per cent of the vote share over Reynolds’ 44 per cent.

Reynolds did not make himself available for an interview on Thursday.

Dance, a rookie MP, is riding on some momentum from her byelection win, and says she’s seen a lot of goodwill from voters in her first six months on the job.

“I’ve lived here my whole life, I grew up here, I went to school here, I worked here, I raised my son here,” says Dance.

“This is my community, and I have given the last 20 years of my life to helping this community in different ways, and I’ll continue to do that moving forward.”

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Her campaign has been focused on cost of living and health care. She wants to put price caps and remove GST on essential grocery and household items, and push to increase the number of practicing family doctors and drive down ER wait times.

Voters she’s encountered are also deeply concerned about the trade war with the United States, she adds. Dance says the NDP has a comprehensive strategy to mitigate the impacts for Canadians.

“When we’re working with multiple levels of government, to make sure we’re showing a united front,” says Dance.

“When we talk about opening up provincial trade amongst the provinces, so it’s going east to west and not north to south. But also, when we’re looking at trade, not just putting all our eggs in the U.S. basket.”

Liberal Candidate Ian MacIntyre finished a distant third place in the byelection, taking less than 5 per cent of the vote. But he says requests for his campaign signs are up this time around.

With the Carney-led Liberals rising in the polls, he’s confident he can make some gains.

“Candidates that I’m speaking to here in Winnipeg are seeing a very positive shift [within the party],” says MacIntyre. “Much can happen in six months, and we’ve seen that — we’ve seen what can happen in six months.”

MacIntyre says he is confident in Carney’s abilities to navigate Trump’s tariff threats and supports retaliatory measures against the United States.

“I believe in those reciprocal tariffs — I’d go as far as saying dollar-for-dollar reciprocal tariffs.”

MacIntyre is also focused on health care, and if elected promises to push for expanding pharmacare, and fast-tracking training for new Canadians to work in healthcare jobs.

Even so, Bird predicts the race will remain a toss-up between the NDP and the Conservatives, as it has been in several prior elections.

Both left-of-centre parties are hoping to coax voters away from their opponents, but Bird says if there is any strategic voting in the riding, it will probably fall in favor of the NDP.

“There might be a number of liberal voters in Elmwood-Transcona who might put their support behind the NDP in sort of a strategic voting fashion, given that its very unlikely that the liberals will carry the riding,” says Bird.

Advanced polling opens Friday, April 18th. Election Day is set for April 28th.

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