Canada has chance to be a major voice at NATO summit. Will allies listen? – National

2:16
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Canada’s updated defence policy forecasts spending will rise from 1.37 per cent of GDP currently to 1.76 per cent by 2030.

Defence Minister Bill Blair has repeatedly said further unallocated spending not specified in the policy update will get Canada to the two-per cent target, but has yet to say when that might happen.

Canada is the only NATO ally not meeting the alliance’s target that has yet to provide a detailed roadmap on getting to two per cent, which NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said will be expected at this week’s summit.

“I have no intention of Canada being a free-rider,” Blair told the FP Security Forum in Washington on Monday on the eve of the summit.

“I’m hoping that over the course of the next few days, I will be able to share that credible, verifiable plan with our allies to provide them with assurances that Canada understands its responsibility and we’re going to live up to our responsibility.”

The lack of a plan has drawn bipartisan condemnation from Washington, with 23 U.S. senators urging Prime Minister Justin Trudeau directly to provide a plan for boosting spending.

Sources have told Global News the Biden administration is losing patience with Canada and wants to see a plan that includes submarines and missile defence that could help reach the target.

Blair has said the government is looking into procuring a new submarine fleet and seeking to work with European allies on the file, but cannot commit more spending until a decision on what to purchase has been made. He has not provided a timeline on that decision.

On Monday, Blair’s office released a list of quotes from NATO and American leaders praising Canada’s defence policy update and commitments to boost spending.

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But there remains frustration with a lot of the language used in the document that makes repeated promises to “explore” things like new submarines, missile defence and other technologies, and even career support for military members.

“Actors are listened to if they have clear and convincing messages, and clear and convincing messages are usually drawn from well-thought-out strategies and policies,” said Ann Fitz-Gerald, director of the Balsillie School of International Affairs and a political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University.

“Many would argue that that ‘exploring’ should be done already.”

Canada has characterized beefing up security in the Arctic as the “most urgent and important task” facing the Canadian Forces amid a changing geopolitical and physical landscape, thanks to climate change.

Melting polar ice caps are making the far north more accessible to countries like Russia and China, which have grown closer since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago.

In order to address these challenges, the government plans on purchasing new early warning aircrafts, tactical helicopters, long range missiles as a threat deterrence and increased sonar and satellite capabilities.

Canada has also pointed to its commitment of nearly $40 billion over 20 years toward modernization of its NORAD capabilities, including over-the-horizon radar systems that can detect encroaching threats.

Shimooka points out that technology and other capabilities will take years to fully develop and train military members.

10:07
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Analysts suggest Canada could essentially trade a commitment to lead on Arctic security for resources from NATO allies in other areas. That could further risk Canada being seen as a reliant partner that’s not pulling its weight across the scope of the alliance’s priorities.

“The Canadian government has already heard multiple times from NATO, from the leadership of NATO, from the secretary-general of NATO, from all of the individual countries that are engaged … you need to stop being a parasite on the periphery of NATO,” retired Gen. Rick Hillier, Canada’s former chief of the defence staff, told Global News.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin last month signed a new defence pact with North Korea that raised alarm bells around the world, further eliminating whatever divide remained between the European and Indo-Pacific theatres.

Canada has played a lead role in enforcing United Nations sanctions on North Korea through its Operation Neon air and naval surveillance mission. It has also sought to boost its economic and military standing in the Indo-Pacific along with the U.S., which Russia and China are seeking to counter.

The NATO summit will include a meeting with European and Indo-Pacific partners, including South Korea and Japan, to further deepen cooperation in the military and cybersecurity realms. Canada should be at that meeting, some analysts say.

“Not being a party to that conversation would be really detrimental to Canada’s economic security and prosperity,” said Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

“We are at risk of being shut out of these discussions, which is why it’s important for us to really assert ourselves now and step up our resources.”

Related Topics:alliesCanadaChancelistenMajorNationalNATOSummitVoice

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