Belarus’s Strong-Arm Leader, Aleksandr Lukashenko, Cruises to Re-election

President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus, the longest-serving leader in Europe, secured his seventh consecutive election victory on Sunday. However, the contest was widely criticized by his exiled opponents as a sham designed to solidify his authoritarian rule in the country, which is a close ally of Russia.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, an opposition leader who fled Belarus following the disputed 2020 election and subsequent crackdown on protests, denounced the recent election as a staged performance by Lukashenko to maintain power at all costs.

Official results revealed that Lukashenko won with 86.82 percent of the vote, even higher than the controversial 81 percent he claimed in the previous election. With dissent suppressed and opposition voices silenced, there is little room for protests against the election outcome.

Unlike the 2020 election where Tikhanovskaya ran against Lukashenko, this year’s election featured only candidates loyal to the president. None of these candidates posed a real threat to Lukashenko’s rule, as they all refrained from actively challenging him.

Tikhanovskaya, who was leading a protest in Warsaw during the election, did not participate in the recent vote. The election saw Lukashenko’s rivals receiving minimal support, with the leader of the Communist Party being the closest contender with 3.2 percent of the vote.

The lack of genuine opposition, along with media bias in favor of Lukashenko, made the election result predictable. Lukashenko, eager to showcase stability to both his country and Russia, aims to move past the unrest of 2020.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief criticized the election as a “sham” that lacked fairness and freedom. However, foreign election observers, including those from former Soviet republics and European far-right parties, praised the election as a democratic success, dismissing European criticism.

Despite Lukashenko’s efforts to present a calm election atmosphere, dissatisfaction with the economy and the country’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain prevalent among Belarusians. Lukashenko’s perceived role in preventing military involvement in the conflict with Ukraine has boosted his popularity.

Russian troops initially used Belarus as a base for a failed move towards Kyiv in early 2022. Lukashenko, however, resisted pressure to engage Belarusian troops in the conflict. Despite his authoritarian rule and the title of “Europe’s last dictator,” Lukashenko maintains a strong grip on power.

In a bid to improve relations with Western countries and alleviate sanctions, Lukashenko has recently released political prisoners. This move, seen as a tactical maneuver, aims to garner favor abroad and ease international pressure on Belarus.

Lukashenko’s perceived role in preventing Belarus from getting embroiled in the conflict following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has bolstered his image among Belarusians. Despite criticism and sanctions from the West, Lukashenko remains steadfast in his loyalty to Moscow.

Following the recent election, Lukashenko expressed optimism about resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Despite taunting the West and displaying pro-Moscow sentiments, Lukashenko has hinted at a willingness to mend ties with Western capitals by releasing political prisoners.

While Lukashenko’s actions may be seen as attempts to gain relief from sanctions, he maintains that his decisions are driven by a sense of humanity. Notably, prominent opposition figures remain incarcerated, and international sanctions against Belarus persist.

Belarus’s state media highlighted the removal of critical statements about the election from the US State Department’s website following the change in administration. Lukashenko’s ability to navigate diplomatic relations amidst international scrutiny reflects his political acumen and strategic maneuvering.

The recent election in Belarus, while criticized by some, has been hailed as a success by foreign observers. Lukashenko’s grip on power and his diplomatic maneuvers amidst international pressure showcase the complexities of Belarusian politics and its relations with the global community.