Adams vs. Cuomo? Poll forecasts a wild mayoral race

As New York City’s mayoral race approaches the June 24 primaries, the focus is on name recognition above all else.

Either you have it, or you don’t.

According to a recent Manhattan Institute poll, only two contenders have significant name recognition: former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has not officially declared his candidacy, and current Mayor Eric Adams.

While this may seem like an advantage for them, it’s not the case for Adams. The mayor is known but not well-liked.

An overwhelming 71% of voters view Adams unfavorably, with only 25% having a positive opinion of him.

Cuomo, on the other hand, remains polarizing but competitive, with 46% viewing him favorably and 49% unfavorably.

New Yorkers are expressing deep dissatisfaction with local conditions, with 66% believing that the city is heading in the wrong direction.

In our analysis, it appears that the most likely scenario is a traditional matchup between Adams and Cuomo, both known for their transactional politics rather than left-wing ideology.

Even if Adams struggles in the primary, this may not be the last time he and Cuomo face off, despite both being Democrats.

Our polling of 618 registered New York City voters, reflective of the likely 2025 mayoral electorate, indicates that if Cuomo runs, he is likely to win. He leads the Democratic primary with 30%, significantly ahead of Adams at 14%.

In our simulated ranked-choice primary, progressive candidates are eliminated early on, followed by former comptroller Scott Stringer and then Comptroller Brad Lander.

In the final round, Cuomo beats Adams 53% to 47%, potentially making Adams the first sitting Democratic mayor to lose a primary since 1989.

However, Adams could have an alternative path. If his support among Democrats continues to decline, he could run as a Republican under New York state’s Wilson-Pakula law.

While this may seem unlikely, if President Trump endorses the idea, the city’s GOP county committees could allow Adams to appear on the Republican ballot.

If Adams plays his cards right, aligning himself with Trump could offer him a political lifeline, whether as a Republican nominee or an independent with GOP support.

While a Cuomo-Adams matchup may favor Cuomo, Adams would have a real base, potentially making the general election more competitive than usual.

Regardless of the outcome, the progressive left is likely to lose, as the next mayor is expected to reject socialist experiments and prioritize issues like public safety.

The battle lines are drawn between Cuomo’s machine politics and Adams’s embattled incumbency, leaving New Yorkers to choose between the familiar and the infamous.

John Ketcham is a legal policy fellow at the Manhattan Institute, where Jesse Arm is the executive director of external affairs and chief of staff.