Air Canada raises core profit forecast on robust international demand, BA

Air Canada on Friday raised its annual core profit forecast and announced share buybacks, as the country’s largest carrier benefits from strong demand for international travel, sending its shares up over 10% in morning Toronto trading. Major North American carriers with international operations are cashing in on booming demand for overseas travel and improved business bookings.

Air Canada is increasing its flights to China, while also adding capacity to other Asia-Pacific routes, even as it saw some pressure on transatlantic travel, the airline said.

Mark Galardo, Air Canada’s executive vice president for revenue and network planning, said the carrier is seeing early indications that transatlantic business will bounce back in 2025. The Montreal-based carrier reported quarterly earnings ahead of analysts’ expectations for revenues and adjusted profits, despite seeing weeks of softer booking volumes due to labor uncertainty as its pilots negotiated a new contract.

Last month, Air Canada signed a new labor deal with its pilots, which would give the aviators a general four-year cumulative pay hike of about 42%, generating about CAD 1.9 billion in additional value.

Air Canada is now monitoring how a weeks-long strike by more than 33,000 factory workers and a production crisis at U.S. planemaker Boeing would affect deliveries of the carrier’s remaining 12 737 MAX aircraft, Chief Financial Officer John Di Bert told analysts. Some deliveries are expected in 2025.

The airline also announced the repurchase of up to 35.8 million shares, its first buyback authorization since the COVID-19 pandemic. The repurchase aims to address the dilution that occurred due to its financing needs during the pandemic. “The demand environment remains favourable. We have adjusted our full-year guidance and underlying assumptions to account for the evolution of the fuel price environment and for certain contract-related adjustments,” CEO Michael Rousseau said.

The carrier now expects its 2024 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of about CAD 3.5 billion (USD 2.51 billion), compared with its previous forecast of CAD 3.1 billion to CAD 3.4 billion. Air Canada posted an adjusted profit of CAD 2.57 per share in the third quarter, compared with analysts’ average estimate of CAD 1.58, according to data compiled by LSEG.

It reported a quarterly operating revenue of CAD 6.12 billion in the three months ended Sept. 30, down 3.8% over the year earlier, but beat analysts’ expectations of CAD 6.06 billion. The company lowered its expectation for average price of jet fuel to CAD 1 per litre for 2024, from the previous estimate of CAD 1.03.