Trump tariff battle with Canada, Mexico, China and Europe points to early winners, losers

President Trump is engaged in a tariff battle with several countries, including Canada, Mexico, the European Union, and China, as part of an effort to reshape the US economy. Early winners and losers have begun to emerge from these tariffs.

One of the early winners is domestic US steel and aluminum manufacturers, such as US Steel and Cleveland Cliffs, who are expected to benefit from the 25% tariff imposed by Trump on these materials. Century Aluminum, the largest primary aluminum producer in the US, believes these tariffs will help boost domestic production.

The cost of steel and aluminum has surged since the tariffs were implemented, with prices reaching new highs. Domestically produced goods are also expected to benefit as imported products face price hikes. Anheuser-Busch, for example, sees the tariffs as favorable for its business due to its robust domestic supply chain.

Other winners include warehouse owners who are benefiting from increased stockpiling, and the US software sector which is not exposed to the tariffs. Gold and silver prices have also seen significant increases since the start of the year as investors seek safe havens during economic uncertainty.

On the flip side, US automakers, such as GM, Ford, and Tesla, are expected to see a rise in manufacturing costs due to the tariffs. Companies with close ties to China, like Apple, may also face challenges as their supply chains are impacted by tariffs.

Overall, the tariff battle is seen as an initial negotiation strategy by the US to bring other countries to the table. The impact of these tariffs is far-reaching, affecting industries from wine and liquor to almond producers in California. Some reports indicated that Canadian retailers were removing Tennessee whiskey from their shelves entirely in protest of Trump’s behavior.

The escalating trade war could have negative implications for US-based automakers, including Elon Musk’s Tesla. The innovative electric vehicle company has experienced a significant 36% decline since the beginning of the year, with critics attributing this decline to Musk’s focus on work with the Department of Government efficiency.

US-based automakers such as General Motors, Ford, and Stellanis are facing challenges as tariffs impact various aspects of their supply chains, from material sourcing and production to sales.

Research by Barclays suggests that the average cost of manufacturing a vehicle could increase by $400 per car if the tariffs remain in place.

“They are facing challenges from Canada, Mexico, and China,” added Ives.

In a letter dated Tuesday to the US Trade Representative’s office, Tesla expressed concerns about potential “disproportionate impacts” from retaliatory tariffs. The company urged careful consideration of trade policies to avoid inadvertently harming US companies.

Construction companies in the US and other industries reliant on raw materials like lumber, nails, and sheet metal could also be impacted.

Apple, a tech giant that heavily relies on China for its supply chain, is expected to suffer significant losses from tariff-related increases unless CEO Tim Cook secures an exemption from Trump. The company’s stock has declined by 13% since the beginning of the year.

“We know from past experience that if Apple faces tariffs, it would have a significant impact on the tech ecosystem,” said Ives, estimating that it would take Apple several years and billions of dollars to relocate even a small portion of its supply chain to the US.

The trade dispute has caused concern among investors, particularly in the tech sector. The Nasdaq index has dropped by nearly 12% in the last 30 days, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have also experienced declines.

Despite the recent market volatility, the president and his supporters are focused on creating a strong economy with fair trade deals and revitalized domestic manufacturing.

“We’re looking at the bigger picture. Can we create an environment that benefits the market in the long run and the American people in the long term?” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during an interview on CNBC. “I’m not worried about short-term fluctuations.”