2025-30: Geopolitical influence on cyber and the convergence of threat

As we progress through the early 2020s, we are witnessing the evolution of various threads within the cyber threat landscape. These threads have been developing independently, but as we approach the latter part of the decade, we can expect a significant convergence of these threats. Over the past five years, we have grappled with the realization that the supply chain poses a major threat, geopolitical tensions have spilled over into the cyber realm, technology companies continue to prioritize speed to market over security, governments are slow to recognize the digital environment as critical national infrastructure, and artificial intelligence is increasingly being utilized by malicious actors.

Looking ahead to the end of the decade and into the early 2030s, it is evident that we have not effectively addressed these individual threats, and they are likely to intersect, resulting in widespread disruption and harm.

In recent years, there has been a growing concern that technology providers are prioritizing the rapid release of products without adequate security measures. The FBI and CISA have even intervened, urging providers to embrace secure-by-design principles. This lax approach has already led to numerous compromises, forcing organizations to invest heavily in External Attack Surface Management and vulnerability intelligence programs.

Many of my clients have experienced breaches originating from their supply chains. While nation-state actors have historically targeted supply chains for their strategic advantages, criminal groups are now employing similar tactics. Additionally, hacktivist groups are also leveraging supply chain vulnerabilities to further their social and political agendas.

As we transition from traditional media to newer, more open platforms where misinformation is prevalent, a wider range of entities are at risk of being targeted. This necessitates enhanced monitoring of various platforms for negative content. Centralized functions that have been outsourced are particularly vulnerable to attacks following disinformation campaigns.

The success of these and future attacks can be attributed to the lack of understanding among governments and regulators regarding the digital landscape. Without proper mapping of critical suppliers and functions, legislation and regulations to safeguard these assets and the society at large have not been implemented.

Lastly, the emergence of Narrow AI, which is increasingly being utilized in cyber defense, presents new challenges. While AI offers significant benefits for defense strategies, malicious actors are also leveraging it for offensive operations. From sophisticated social engineering tactics to the rapid development and deployment of malware, AI is reshaping the cyber threat landscape.

Looking ahead, it is clear that software vulnerabilities will persist, AI capabilities will expand, supply chain compromises will become more common, and critical digital infrastructure will remain unprotected. As more nations acquire offensive cyber capabilities, geopolitical tensions may escalate, leading to prolonged disruptions in the digital realm. The future of cybersecurity demands heightened vigilance and preparedness to navigate the increasingly perilous digital landscape.